Probability and Bet Sizing

One area I've improved tremendously upon is the size of my bets. In No-Limit Hold'em, you can bet any amount, at any time. It's the reason people love the game. The possiblities of how to play certain situations are almost endless. I want to discuss a situation that comes up a few times a session, and how some relatively simple math can help make tons more money in the long run.

On the last round of betting, sometimes you have a hand that you are absolutely certain is the best hand. Your dilemna becomes "how much should I bet?"

We need to look at the size of the bets in terms of their expected value (EV). In a very simple example, a $10 dollar bet that you feel will be called 90% of the time has an EV of
$9 ($10 x .9). A $20 bet that will be called 60% of the time has a $12 EV ($20 x .6). Over the long term, betting $20 will make you more money.

Here's a situation that came up a few days ago. On the river, I had the "nuts" (an unbeatable hand.) We were in a large pot, and I had about $400 dollar left in front of me. Here is how I analyed my options.

1. Bet around $150, which would be called almost 100% of the time. (EV of $150)
2. Bet $200, which would be called about 80% of the time. (EV of $160)
3. Move "all -in" for $400, which only has about a 50% chance of being called. (EV of $200)

I chose to move all in, because it has the highest EV, even though half the time I make absolutely nothing. Now that I am properly bankrolled, I can make this decision over and over, and it will make me money in the long run. When you don't play often, or "need" the money, as I did a few weeks ago, then you probably choose option 1 - since you are guaranteed $150. There is an understandable tendency to take the guaranteed profit over a riskier play. However, I don't look at the situation in a vacuum. I look at it as having this decision over and over, and figuring out how to maximize it's EV.

If this situation presents itself 5 times a week, playing it to maximum EV makes me an extra $250/wk, $1k/mo, $12k/yr.

This is just one example of the many aspects of the game I spend alot of time thinking and talking about. I'm sure I'm doing hundreds of things that can be improved, and as I discover and improve them, my winnings will continue to grow.

I talked at first at how "a light goes on" for some people and they go from good to great. I am not calling myself a great player, but a light has definitely gone on. I'm better today than I was yesterday, and I'll be better tommorrow than I was today.

Earnings are now over $5o/hr, and $65/hr since I moved to higher stakes.

I'll probably write again about some poker concepts soon. I hope those of you that play a little can follow and enjoy.