It's been a good week back at the smaller game...up about 975 through 3 days. I've been playing well, and the cards still aren't running great - I guess that's the difference between the small and mid-stakes games for me right now. I can grind out a few hundred at the 1-2 table even when the cards aren't cooperating, but at the bigger game, I only break even without help from the cards. Breaking even when you're not running well is fine...I just want to book a few solid weeks of wins so that if I'm still breaking even when I go back to the bigger game, I can handle it emotionally. Hopefully, I'll run better. There are definitely some 4-5k weeks waiting for me.
Today I finished 5th out of 94 in a hundred dollar buyin tournament. It was nice to mix it up a little, and see how my improved play translated into a live tournament setting. I felt in complete control of the action the entire day. I think that over the next few weeks I will play a few more tournaments to keep sharp and to keep things interesting.
I've been writing a lot in a journal about Suzy and stuff. I may post that stuff in a blog, too, and maybe someday in a book...I've been told that my stories and thoughts about her help the people who miss her. It's definitely therapeutic for me - I'm just not sure about having 2 blogs at once...it seems a little self-important.
Either way I'll continue to update this blog. Right now I'm definitely just grinding...no TV appearances, celebrity run-ins, etc., so there's not a huge amount of interesting stuff for me to write about - I'm just a card player trying to make some money, and it's not very glamorous, but I love it.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Friday, May 22, 2009
Movin on down
After 2 frustrating weeks of break even results, I'm moving down to 1-2 no limit for at least a week. I haven't been playing badly (or great, either), but the cards have continually been uncooperative. I've been dealt KK four times when someone else had AA (statistically that should happen once in every 4500 hands). I've folded all four times, but still...I've missed every flush draw, been rivered over and over again - it's starting to get frustrating. I'm pretty happy that I'm break even over this period where I'm "running bad."
I'm starting to walk into the cardroom with a feeling that something bad is going to happen, instead of something good. I don't want to play like that. There is no way to play your best with a negative attitude. This is a learning experience for me.
My solution is to play a smaller game to get some mojo back. I sat there for a few hours yesterday, and immediately felt in complete control again. It was the easiest 300 I've won in weeks. There were no pros, just weak players who I can treat as sort of puppets (I know that sounds cocky but it's true, and it's good to be a little cocky sometimes. )
There is a bit of pride to swallow in moving down a level, but it's important for me to be honest about my own mindset, and put myself in positive situations. I'll be back to a bigger game in a week or two.
Thanks for reading.
I'm starting to walk into the cardroom with a feeling that something bad is going to happen, instead of something good. I don't want to play like that. There is no way to play your best with a negative attitude. This is a learning experience for me.
My solution is to play a smaller game to get some mojo back. I sat there for a few hours yesterday, and immediately felt in complete control again. It was the easiest 300 I've won in weeks. There were no pros, just weak players who I can treat as sort of puppets (I know that sounds cocky but it's true, and it's good to be a little cocky sometimes. )
There is a bit of pride to swallow in moving down a level, but it's important for me to be honest about my own mindset, and put myself in positive situations. I'll be back to a bigger game in a week or two.
Thanks for reading.
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
"Stuck"
When you lose in poker, we call it being "stuck." Well, I'm stuck over the past three sessions for about $700. It was as bad as $1200, but I won my first big pot in a week late yesterday.
Yesterday and Monday I played great, but both were losing sessions. On Friday, the cards ran badly and I played badly, which is obviously a bad recipe.
I bought myself a Blackberry Storm to help me stay patient through the inevitable boring times where all I do for hours is fold. I can watch videos, surf the web, etc., It helps me resist the urge to force something to happen when it's just not there. I think it saved me a few hundred yesterday. Thanks Blackberry.
I haven't done my hourly calculations since last week. Right now I'm happy with how I am handling my longest losing streak yet. I feel refreshed again today, and am not bringing the disappointments of the past few days with me. I don't feel like analyzing my results until I turn it around, or unless I continue the downswing.
Three days is not a long downswing. I've really only played about 15 hours in that time. Eventually, I will hit a streak where I'm running bad for weeks. It's just part of the job. I just hope that streak isn't here yet.
Yesterday and Monday I played great, but both were losing sessions. On Friday, the cards ran badly and I played badly, which is obviously a bad recipe.
I bought myself a Blackberry Storm to help me stay patient through the inevitable boring times where all I do for hours is fold. I can watch videos, surf the web, etc., It helps me resist the urge to force something to happen when it's just not there. I think it saved me a few hundred yesterday. Thanks Blackberry.
I haven't done my hourly calculations since last week. Right now I'm happy with how I am handling my longest losing streak yet. I feel refreshed again today, and am not bringing the disappointments of the past few days with me. I don't feel like analyzing my results until I turn it around, or unless I continue the downswing.
Three days is not a long downswing. I've really only played about 15 hours in that time. Eventually, I will hit a streak where I'm running bad for weeks. It's just part of the job. I just hope that streak isn't here yet.
Thursday, May 7, 2009
Probability and Bet Sizing
One area I've improved tremendously upon is the size of my bets. In No-Limit Hold'em, you can bet any amount, at any time. It's the reason people love the game. The possiblities of how to play certain situations are almost endless. I want to discuss a situation that comes up a few times a session, and how some relatively simple math can help make tons more money in the long run.
On the last round of betting, sometimes you have a hand that you are absolutely certain is the best hand. Your dilemna becomes "how much should I bet?"
We need to look at the size of the bets in terms of their expected value (EV). In a very simple example, a $10 dollar bet that you feel will be called 90% of the time has an EV of
$9 ($10 x .9). A $20 bet that will be called 60% of the time has a $12 EV ($20 x .6). Over the long term, betting $20 will make you more money.
Here's a situation that came up a few days ago. On the river, I had the "nuts" (an unbeatable hand.) We were in a large pot, and I had about $400 dollar left in front of me. Here is how I analyed my options.
1. Bet around $150, which would be called almost 100% of the time. (EV of $150)
2. Bet $200, which would be called about 80% of the time. (EV of $160)
3. Move "all -in" for $400, which only has about a 50% chance of being called. (EV of $200)
I chose to move all in, because it has the highest EV, even though half the time I make absolutely nothing. Now that I am properly bankrolled, I can make this decision over and over, and it will make me money in the long run. When you don't play often, or "need" the money, as I did a few weeks ago, then you probably choose option 1 - since you are guaranteed $150. There is an understandable tendency to take the guaranteed profit over a riskier play. However, I don't look at the situation in a vacuum. I look at it as having this decision over and over, and figuring out how to maximize it's EV.
If this situation presents itself 5 times a week, playing it to maximum EV makes me an extra $250/wk, $1k/mo, $12k/yr.
This is just one example of the many aspects of the game I spend alot of time thinking and talking about. I'm sure I'm doing hundreds of things that can be improved, and as I discover and improve them, my winnings will continue to grow.
I talked at first at how "a light goes on" for some people and they go from good to great. I am not calling myself a great player, but a light has definitely gone on. I'm better today than I was yesterday, and I'll be better tommorrow than I was today.
Earnings are now over $5o/hr, and $65/hr since I moved to higher stakes.
I'll probably write again about some poker concepts soon. I hope those of you that play a little can follow and enjoy.
On the last round of betting, sometimes you have a hand that you are absolutely certain is the best hand. Your dilemna becomes "how much should I bet?"
We need to look at the size of the bets in terms of their expected value (EV). In a very simple example, a $10 dollar bet that you feel will be called 90% of the time has an EV of
$9 ($10 x .9). A $20 bet that will be called 60% of the time has a $12 EV ($20 x .6). Over the long term, betting $20 will make you more money.
Here's a situation that came up a few days ago. On the river, I had the "nuts" (an unbeatable hand.) We were in a large pot, and I had about $400 dollar left in front of me. Here is how I analyed my options.
1. Bet around $150, which would be called almost 100% of the time. (EV of $150)
2. Bet $200, which would be called about 80% of the time. (EV of $160)
3. Move "all -in" for $400, which only has about a 50% chance of being called. (EV of $200)
I chose to move all in, because it has the highest EV, even though half the time I make absolutely nothing. Now that I am properly bankrolled, I can make this decision over and over, and it will make me money in the long run. When you don't play often, or "need" the money, as I did a few weeks ago, then you probably choose option 1 - since you are guaranteed $150. There is an understandable tendency to take the guaranteed profit over a riskier play. However, I don't look at the situation in a vacuum. I look at it as having this decision over and over, and figuring out how to maximize it's EV.
If this situation presents itself 5 times a week, playing it to maximum EV makes me an extra $250/wk, $1k/mo, $12k/yr.
This is just one example of the many aspects of the game I spend alot of time thinking and talking about. I'm sure I'm doing hundreds of things that can be improved, and as I discover and improve them, my winnings will continue to grow.
I talked at first at how "a light goes on" for some people and they go from good to great. I am not calling myself a great player, but a light has definitely gone on. I'm better today than I was yesterday, and I'll be better tommorrow than I was today.
Earnings are now over $5o/hr, and $65/hr since I moved to higher stakes.
I'll probably write again about some poker concepts soon. I hope those of you that play a little can follow and enjoy.
Saturday, May 2, 2009
Great Week
41 hours = +$3041
I moved up to 2-5 no limit with the expectation that I'd play a little and then go back to the smaller game. However, I crushed the game all week, and it's clear that I have a huge advantage over most of the players at this level. There are about a dozen other "pros" who play at this level - I know who they are and should be able to avoide major pots with them as there are still usually 6-8 amateurs playing at the same time. With the big win for the week, my bankroll is also appropriate for the increase in stakes. I won over 2k in one marathon session.
As I said before, I did not expect the first few months to be this good. I have exceeded all my goals and expectations. After 200 hours, I will re-examine and adjust them.
Week - 41 hours = +$3041 = $64.70/hr
Total - 145 hours = $7022 = $48.42/hr
That hourly is almost double what I anticipated for April. I'm loving it.
I moved up to 2-5 no limit with the expectation that I'd play a little and then go back to the smaller game. However, I crushed the game all week, and it's clear that I have a huge advantage over most of the players at this level. There are about a dozen other "pros" who play at this level - I know who they are and should be able to avoide major pots with them as there are still usually 6-8 amateurs playing at the same time. With the big win for the week, my bankroll is also appropriate for the increase in stakes. I won over 2k in one marathon session.
As I said before, I did not expect the first few months to be this good. I have exceeded all my goals and expectations. After 200 hours, I will re-examine and adjust them.
Week - 41 hours = +$3041 = $64.70/hr
Total - 145 hours = $7022 = $48.42/hr
That hourly is almost double what I anticipated for April. I'm loving it.
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