Last night I sat right next to actor James Woods for 4 hours at Foxwoods. We were playing 2-5 no limit, and we chatted the entire time. Today, I found out that he is rumored to be a genius, with an IQ just higher than Plato, Galileo, and Stephen Hawking, and just a hair below DaVinci and chess champion Gary Kasparov.
We talked about Warwick politics, statistical probability, Swine Flu, cellular proliferation, the ethics of border closings, and Family Guy. For what it's worth, his "genius" didn't really wow me. As a matter of fact, he may be smarter than me, but if I had to guess I'd be right up there with Galileo and Hawking. (kidding). Mostly we talked about poker. We see the game the same way, and I correctly guessed his hand several times, and he did the same to me. There was also an NBA player (Josh Boone of UCONN and the New Jersey Nets) at our table. He is a really nice kid and took the game seriously, which impressed me given that he could lose a few grand and not really feel it. I ended up with a small $145 win.
On Friday night, I had worked my way up to +$725 after about 12 hours, when the following hand came up (warning : detailed poker description to follow) :
In a 2-5 no limit game, I was dealt AK under the gun (first to act). I raised to $30, and was reraised by a weak player to $100. Against a strong player, I would likely fold here, but I knew that his range included hands like AQ, QQ, JJ, and 1010, all of which presented good opportunities for me. I had about $1200 in front of me, and he had $700 The flop came KK5, giving me 3 Kings. I decided to play this hand "fast" meaning aggressive. Most players at this level try to trap their opponents with such a big hand. Knowing that I was against a weak player, I thought the best disguise for my hand was to make a large bet that looked like I was trying to bluff and steal the pot. I bet $150, and he moved all in almost immediately. Just as quickly, I called and turned over my monster hand. Sheepishly, he said "I have sevens". He obviously thought I was bluffing, and went all-in to make me fold. My plan had worked perfectly, and I was about to take his $700, book a $1400 win, and go to bed. I was over a ninety percent favorite, after all.
The turn card was an awful 7, giving him a full house. It's hard to describe how crappy that felt. I had played my ass off for 12 hours, found a great spot for a lot of chips, and the deck punched me in the stomach.
Anyway, "that's poker!" It's going to happen again, so I have to get used to it. I took a few days off and shook off the bad energy. I am feeling good and have 20 hours scheduled over the next 2 days. A thousand dollar session awaits.....
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Thursday, April 23, 2009
The First 100 Hours
Here are recent results (all live)
4/13 +240 5 hrs
4/14 -620 15 hrs
4/16 +580 4 hrs
4/17 +630 5 hrs
4/18 - 410 12 hrs
4/20 -210 4 hrs
4/21 +610 6 hrs
4/22 +550 4 hrs
4/23 +600 4 hrs
Total +$2070/59 hrs = $35.09/hr
Net Totals to date $3981/101 hrs = $39.41/hr
Right now, I'm playing better than I ever have. I feel like the 39/hr is sustainable. I have made some ridiculous calls catching large bluffs, and folded hands correctly that I never could have folded before. I've folded sets (3 of a kind), pocket aces, small flushes to bigger flushes - all of these are saving me hundreds of dollars, and are probably the main difference between my historical 25/hr and my current 39/hr.
I am unbelievably excited about my progress. I did not expect to improve this much in such a short time. I know that my skill set is ready to beat bigger games, but I am trying to be patient and build my bankroll responsibly. I will probably begin to spend a few hours a week in a larger buyin, just to get a feel for the action and start thinking about things I may have to change at the next level.
I'm playing a marathon session tommorrow night. The past 2 long sessions have been losing ones, for 2 reasons. One is the cards - I lost a 600 dollar pot as a 97 percent favorite. When you play enough, this is bound to happen, and I'm actually surprised that it only happened once in a huge pot. The other reason is that I've gotten a little cocky in these long sessions. I feel like I can outplay people so badly after the flop that I'm putting myself in marginal situations that I should be avoiding. Tommorrow I'm bringing a novel to help get me through the inevitable 4 or 5 hours where I should be folding. It's kind of strange that I'll be reading a novel in the middle of the night at the casino, but I've done stranger things in the past.
Thanks for reading. I'm taking Saturday and Sunday off and will try to write about some of the poker theory that I've been playing around with.
4/13 +240 5 hrs
4/14 -620 15 hrs
4/16 +580 4 hrs
4/17 +630 5 hrs
4/18 - 410 12 hrs
4/20 -210 4 hrs
4/21 +610 6 hrs
4/22 +550 4 hrs
4/23 +600 4 hrs
Total +$2070/59 hrs = $35.09/hr
Net Totals to date $3981/101 hrs = $39.41/hr
Right now, I'm playing better than I ever have. I feel like the 39/hr is sustainable. I have made some ridiculous calls catching large bluffs, and folded hands correctly that I never could have folded before. I've folded sets (3 of a kind), pocket aces, small flushes to bigger flushes - all of these are saving me hundreds of dollars, and are probably the main difference between my historical 25/hr and my current 39/hr.
I am unbelievably excited about my progress. I did not expect to improve this much in such a short time. I know that my skill set is ready to beat bigger games, but I am trying to be patient and build my bankroll responsibly. I will probably begin to spend a few hours a week in a larger buyin, just to get a feel for the action and start thinking about things I may have to change at the next level.
I'm playing a marathon session tommorrow night. The past 2 long sessions have been losing ones, for 2 reasons. One is the cards - I lost a 600 dollar pot as a 97 percent favorite. When you play enough, this is bound to happen, and I'm actually surprised that it only happened once in a huge pot. The other reason is that I've gotten a little cocky in these long sessions. I feel like I can outplay people so badly after the flop that I'm putting myself in marginal situations that I should be avoiding. Tommorrow I'm bringing a novel to help get me through the inevitable 4 or 5 hours where I should be folding. It's kind of strange that I'll be reading a novel in the middle of the night at the casino, but I've done stranger things in the past.
Thanks for reading. I'm taking Saturday and Sunday off and will try to write about some of the poker theory that I've been playing around with.
Friday, April 10, 2009
Results
I played 29 live hours this week for a $1526 profit. I also played 8 online hours and netted $133.
$1526/29 hours = $52.62/hr live
$133/8 hours = $16.25/hr online
Total since tracking
$1911/42 hours = $45.5/hr live
$384/31 hours = $12.38/hr online
As I build my bankroll and can play in bigger online games, I expect that the earning rate will increase dramatically. I am moving up to a bigger online game the next time I play, which should consistently yield $15-$20/hour. I think I can move up several times to higher stakes before I find really good player. I just don't want to deposit a lot of money online, because it takes weeks to get out. I'd rather build it slowly, then cash out a few thousand when I'm ready.
Excellent week. I'm not playing live this weekend. I've got a ton of poker related thoughts that I will write about for those of you interested in the nuts and bolts of the game.
Happy Easter!
$1526/29 hours = $52.62/hr live
$133/8 hours = $16.25/hr online
Total since tracking
$1911/42 hours = $45.5/hr live
$384/31 hours = $12.38/hr online
As I build my bankroll and can play in bigger online games, I expect that the earning rate will increase dramatically. I am moving up to a bigger online game the next time I play, which should consistently yield $15-$20/hour. I think I can move up several times to higher stakes before I find really good player. I just don't want to deposit a lot of money online, because it takes weeks to get out. I'd rather build it slowly, then cash out a few thousand when I'm ready.
Excellent week. I'm not playing live this weekend. I've got a ton of poker related thoughts that I will write about for those of you interested in the nuts and bolts of the game.
Happy Easter!
Monday, April 6, 2009
Done moving and time to get serious
Most of the last 2 weeks were spent moving Amber and I out of our apartment and into my parent's house. We're staying until we find the right house to rent in a school system. I also had a slight issue with some of the paperwork related to my right to operate a motor vehicle, which I finally cleared up on Friday. Those are my excuses for only playing live poker twice in the last 2 weeks. They are both out of the way now, and I've started playing alot, both online and live.
I pulled all-nighters at Foxwoods on Friday and Sunday night. The results are really great. Friday night I won $695 in a little over four hours, and Sunday night $240 in 5 hours, for a total of $935 in 9 hours. On Sunday, I could have won more, but played a horrendous hand that cost a little over $300...more about that in a minute.
Obviously, I'm not going to average over $100/hr, even on weekend nights. However, now that I've been in the middle of the night 3 times, I'm convinced that I can average $50/hr without playing in games that require a large cash risk from me. The downside is that I'm up all night, and then trying to catch naps while Amber is at daycare. I'll need to figure out how to schedule sleep and exercise so that I'm taking good care of myself.
My online play has mostly been single table tournaments. I found myself getting pretty bored of the cash games, and I've been refreshed by mixing it up. I'm up several hundred (my records are on my other computer) - but that's not what I'm excited about. I'm excited because I'm finding so many ways to improve. When you play alot, and pay attention to your mistakes, 2 good things happen. The first is obvious - you try not to repeat your mistakes, and you change your style to adapt to something that's obviously not working.
The second is more subtle, but probably more powerful. Your subconscious begins to notice things about the game that can help you. You pick up betting patterns of your opponents without really concentrating on it. I've found myself catching people's bluffs with greater accuracy, and I can't really tell you why, except that my subconscious notices things that just don't add up about how a player played the hand. Certainly I try to do those things thoughtfully, as well - but for the first time, I just find myself knowing the strength of an opponents hand. It's not really instincts - it's learned, but on a subconscious level. The mind is pretty amazing. When this starts happening at live games, I know I'll take my game to the next level. If your subconscious can pick this stuff up by playing on a computer, imagine what it can do when you add observing body language into it's "database."
Here's a little bit about the bad hand that I played on Sunday night. If you don't like math, stop reading now. I'm trying to keep things interesting for the non-poker player, but some of you may find the detailed poker related concepts stuff interesting. It's the kind thing that I'll think about for hours.
I found myself in a big pot with an aggressive player who had an enormous stack of chips - probably over $2500. I had a strong hand, but one that was very vulnerable given the texture of the board (the community cards). On the last round of betting (the "river"), my opponent bet $200. The pot already had around $350 in it. I was pretty sure that I was behind, and if I called I would lose the $200. Sounds like I should fold easily, right? It costs 200 bucks, and I think that I don't have the best hand.
It's not that simple. Although $200 is alot of money to me, I cannot let the amount of the bet affect my decision making process. Here is how I analyzed my decision. With $350 in the pot, plus the $200 my opponent bet, the potsize was $550. I had to call $200 to win $550. Therefore, my the pot was laying me 2.75 to 1 odds. (For every dollar I bet, I had an opportunity to win 2.75)
From there, I have to convert the odds into a percentage in order to help make my decision. I would have to have the better hand only 30% of the time for me to call the last $200 profitably Remember, I'm calling a $200 bet to win $550. So, I decided that I had about a 35% chance that I had the better hand, I called, and lost.
I have no problem with how I did the math. It's absolutely correct. I'm able to do it quickly and without letting my opponents know that I am calculating these kinds of odds.
The reason I say I played the hand horribly was because after thinking more about the information that my opponent had given me, I know that my assumption that I would have the better hand 35% of the time was a terrible assumption. Basically, there was information that I missed - clues that he gave me that I didn't take into account properly. In retrospect, I should have put that percentage at 10-15, and folded the hand. It's something I'm usually pretty good at, but in this case I erred, and it really cost me. Even though I had a winning session, and played pretty well, this is the hand I replayed over and over on the ride home. It's the one I learned the most from. It's also a hand that I probably would have played better online, with help from my now ultra-perceptive subconscious.
Poker is about making good decisions with only incomplete information. The value of my math and probability skills are only as good as the accuracy of my assumptions and observations. It's what makes it a great game. The more you learn, the more you realize you can learn.
I should be playing during the day tommorrow. I'll try to do a quick update with my total results to date after the session.
I pulled all-nighters at Foxwoods on Friday and Sunday night. The results are really great. Friday night I won $695 in a little over four hours, and Sunday night $240 in 5 hours, for a total of $935 in 9 hours. On Sunday, I could have won more, but played a horrendous hand that cost a little over $300...more about that in a minute.
Obviously, I'm not going to average over $100/hr, even on weekend nights. However, now that I've been in the middle of the night 3 times, I'm convinced that I can average $50/hr without playing in games that require a large cash risk from me. The downside is that I'm up all night, and then trying to catch naps while Amber is at daycare. I'll need to figure out how to schedule sleep and exercise so that I'm taking good care of myself.
My online play has mostly been single table tournaments. I found myself getting pretty bored of the cash games, and I've been refreshed by mixing it up. I'm up several hundred (my records are on my other computer) - but that's not what I'm excited about. I'm excited because I'm finding so many ways to improve. When you play alot, and pay attention to your mistakes, 2 good things happen. The first is obvious - you try not to repeat your mistakes, and you change your style to adapt to something that's obviously not working.
The second is more subtle, but probably more powerful. Your subconscious begins to notice things about the game that can help you. You pick up betting patterns of your opponents without really concentrating on it. I've found myself catching people's bluffs with greater accuracy, and I can't really tell you why, except that my subconscious notices things that just don't add up about how a player played the hand. Certainly I try to do those things thoughtfully, as well - but for the first time, I just find myself knowing the strength of an opponents hand. It's not really instincts - it's learned, but on a subconscious level. The mind is pretty amazing. When this starts happening at live games, I know I'll take my game to the next level. If your subconscious can pick this stuff up by playing on a computer, imagine what it can do when you add observing body language into it's "database."
Here's a little bit about the bad hand that I played on Sunday night. If you don't like math, stop reading now. I'm trying to keep things interesting for the non-poker player, but some of you may find the detailed poker related concepts stuff interesting. It's the kind thing that I'll think about for hours.
I found myself in a big pot with an aggressive player who had an enormous stack of chips - probably over $2500. I had a strong hand, but one that was very vulnerable given the texture of the board (the community cards). On the last round of betting (the "river"), my opponent bet $200. The pot already had around $350 in it. I was pretty sure that I was behind, and if I called I would lose the $200. Sounds like I should fold easily, right? It costs 200 bucks, and I think that I don't have the best hand.
It's not that simple. Although $200 is alot of money to me, I cannot let the amount of the bet affect my decision making process. Here is how I analyzed my decision. With $350 in the pot, plus the $200 my opponent bet, the potsize was $550. I had to call $200 to win $550. Therefore, my the pot was laying me 2.75 to 1 odds. (For every dollar I bet, I had an opportunity to win 2.75)
From there, I have to convert the odds into a percentage in order to help make my decision. I would have to have the better hand only 30% of the time for me to call the last $200 profitably Remember, I'm calling a $200 bet to win $550. So, I decided that I had about a 35% chance that I had the better hand, I called, and lost.
I have no problem with how I did the math. It's absolutely correct. I'm able to do it quickly and without letting my opponents know that I am calculating these kinds of odds.
The reason I say I played the hand horribly was because after thinking more about the information that my opponent had given me, I know that my assumption that I would have the better hand 35% of the time was a terrible assumption. Basically, there was information that I missed - clues that he gave me that I didn't take into account properly. In retrospect, I should have put that percentage at 10-15, and folded the hand. It's something I'm usually pretty good at, but in this case I erred, and it really cost me. Even though I had a winning session, and played pretty well, this is the hand I replayed over and over on the ride home. It's the one I learned the most from. It's also a hand that I probably would have played better online, with help from my now ultra-perceptive subconscious.
Poker is about making good decisions with only incomplete information. The value of my math and probability skills are only as good as the accuracy of my assumptions and observations. It's what makes it a great game. The more you learn, the more you realize you can learn.
I should be playing during the day tommorrow. I'll try to do a quick update with my total results to date after the session.
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